Vixio Forecast: U.S. Online Betting Set to Hit $16.8B in 2025, With Room to Grow
A new Vixio GamblingCompliance report, U.S. Online Outlook Summer 2025, projects the online sports betting segment alone will generate $16.8 billion in gross revenue this year, with long-term growth hinging on further legalization and the ability of states to balance regulation with tax policy.
Big Numbers Ahead
By 2028, Vixio expects U.S. online sports betting to reach $24.1 billion in annual revenue under its base-case forecast, assuming legalization in 32 states.
In a more optimistic scenario, if additional markets such as Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Washington join in, the total could climb to $26.3 billion.
Adding in iGaming, the combined U.S. online gambling market could stretch from $39.5 billion to $55.5 billion by 2028, firmly cementing America as the largest regulated online gaming market in the world.
The State of Play
As of mid-2025, online sports betting is legal or regulated in 31 states, with Missouri preparing to launch. Full iGaming is available in just seven states, among them Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, though that smaller footprint still generated $8.55 billion over the past year, a 28% jump that pushed the U.S. past the U.K. as the world’s biggest iGaming market.
New York is projected to remain the largest sports betting state through 2028, followed by Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, and Ohio.
Growth has not come without friction. Illinois recently added a per-wager tax, effectively pushing FanDuel and DraftKings above a 50% effective tax rate in the state. Louisiana also hiked its sportsbook tax from 15% to 21.5%. Operators warn that higher costs may trickle down to consumers, either through higher minimum bets or new surcharges on winning wagers.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is rolling out stricter KYC and MFA requirements starting September 30, with identity checks via government-issued ID and live selfie verification. Regulators are watching Brazil and other markets as models for tightening account security.
Political Resistance to iGaming
If 2025 feels quieter legislatively, that’s no accident. For the first time since 2016, no new state has approved online sports betting or iGaming. A major reason: the formation of the National Association Against iGaming (NAAiG), a coalition of land-based operators and labor unions pushing back on digital expansion.
They argue iGaming cannibalizes 10–15% of brick-and-mortar revenue and accelerates the dominance of online giants like FanDuel and DraftKings.
Ohio and Florida remain the battlegrounds to watch. Ohio lawmakers are considering iGaming legalization with sky-high licensing fees and tax rates, while Florida faces thorny negotiations with the Seminole Tribe over whether digital casinos could sit alongside existing sports betting rights.
The Vixio report also flags activity in adjacent sectors. Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey have issued rulings favoring Kalshi’s prediction markets, potentially opening the door for more regulated exchanges. At the same time, states like Louisiana are moving to explicitly ban sweepstakes casinos using dual-currency models, and lottery couriers face mixed fortunes, blocked in Texas but newly welcomed in Arizona.
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