Top Bet Types in NFL Football: Moneyline, Spread, and More

For beginners, the moneyline is the simplest place to start, as it only requires picking the winner. However, more experienced bettors often focus on the point spread and totals to find better value.

The Three Core NFL Bet Types

These wagers account for the majority of all money bet on an NFL game.

1. Moneyline (ML) Bets

A moneyline bet is a simple wager on which team will win the game outright. The odds reflect the probability of the win.

Mechanics:

• Favorite (Negative Odds): Requires a larger stake to win a smaller profit (e.g., -200 means a $\$200$ bet wins $\$100$ profit).
• Underdog (Positive Odds): Requires a smaller stake to win a larger profit (e.g., +170 means a $\$100$ bet wins $\$170$ profit).

Strategy: Bet the moneyline on underdogs in matchups you expect to be close. While favorites win about 65% of games, underdogs offer high returns on the 35% of games they upset.

Pro/Con: Pro: Easiest bet to understand. Con: Low returns on heavy favorites.

2. Point Spread (ATS) Bets

The point spread is a handicap set by oddsmakers to make the game a roughly 50/50 proposition. You bet on the margin of victory.

Mechanics:

• Favorite: Must win by more than the spread to “cover” (e.g., Chiefs -3.5 must win by 4 or more).
• Underdog: Covers if they lose by less than the spread, tie, or win the game outright (e.g., Bills +3.5 covers on a 3-point loss).

Odds: Spread bets usually sit at -110 on both sides, requiring a $\$110$ bet to profit $\$100$.

Strategy: Spreads cover roughly 50% of the time historically. Look for value in home underdogs, which data shows cover slightly more than 50% ATS. Pay attention to key numbers like 3 and 7, as many NFL games end with these margins.

Pro/Con: Pro: Offers balanced odds on mismatched games. Con: The “hook” (.5) prevents ties but increases variance.

3. Totals (Over/Under) Bets

A totals bet wagers on whether the combined score of both teams will be Over or Under a number set by the sportsbook.

Mechanics:

• The line is set (e.g., 45.5 points). You bet Over (46+ points) or Under (45 or less).
• Odds are typically -110.
• If the line is a whole number (e.g., 46) and the final score matches it exactly, it is a push, and the stake is refunded.

Strategy: Totals are independent of the game’s winner. Research weather forecasts (unders often hit in high wind/rain) and team pace. Historically, unders have hit slightly more often (about 51%) in the regular season.

Pro/Con: Pro: Independent of who wins. Con: Can be drastically affected by late-game touchdowns or overtime.

Advanced and Specialty Bet Types

Beyond the core three, NFL betting offers options for season-long predictions, specific events, and combined wagers.

4. Props (Proposition) Bets

Prop bets focus on specific events or individual player performance within a game.

• Types: Player Props (e.g., Patrick Mahomes Over 250.5 Passing Yards), Team Props (e.g., Chiefs to score Over 2.5 Touchdowns), or Game Props (e.g., First Team to Score).
• Popularity: Props have exploded in popularity with online betting, offering highly specific engagement.
• Strategy: Research individual player usage and matchups for an edge.

5. Parlays and Teasers

These types combine multiple wagers into a single bet for a significantly higher payout.

6. Futures and Live Betting

Futures Bets: Long-term wagers on results that will be settled at the end of the season. Examples include betting on the Super Bowl Winner, MVP, or Division Champion. The earlier you bet, the better the value, as successful teams see their odds drop mid-season.

Live Betting: Wagers placed after the game has started. The odds shift dynamically in real-time based on game events and momentum. This allows you to bet on things like the next team to score or the adjusted point spread.

Responsible Betting Practices

Regardless of the bet type, successful NFL wagering requires discipline and awareness.

• Bankroll Management: Always set a strict betting budget. Risk only 1% to 5% of your total bankroll on any single wager.
• Focus on Value: Do not bet on your favorite team out of loyalty. Focus on finding value where the odds offered by the bookmaker are lower than your own assessed probability of the outcome.
• Seek Help: If you find yourself chasing losses, betting more than you can afford, or lying about your gambling, help is available. Contact the National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER.