Spain Tops World Cup Futures as Books Brace for US Liability
Following the group draw for the 2026 World Cup, sportsbook operators updated their futures markets. While the elite tier remained stable, the specific matchups caused price shifts for mid-level contenders. Spain emerged from the process as the clear consensus favorite. Simultaneously, American operators identified the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) as their primary financial liability due to heavy public backing.
European Dominance and South American Drift
Spain currently leads the board across major platforms. Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel list the reigning Euro 2024 champions at +400, while DraftKings and theScore Bet offer slightly longer odds at +450.
Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer at Caesars, attributed this positioning to a dominant run of form. He noted that Spain’s price shortened after they secured the European title and completed a 31-game unbeaten streak during qualifiers.
The rise of young talent, specifically Lamine Yamal, further solidified their status.
England holds the second position, with odds improving to +550 at DraftKings following the draw. France sits third, though their price drifted to +750 after drawing a dangerous Norwegian side.
South American powerhouses Brazil and Argentina are both priced at +800. For Brazil, this represents a historically high price, reflecting a difficult qualifying cycle and a recent loss to Japan.
The Domestic Liability
For US-based sportsbooks, the host nation presents a distinct risk management challenge. The USMNT carries long odds between +5000 and +8000, classifying them as a significant underdog.
DraftKings odds for the 2026 World Cup
Despite this, domestic bettors are flooding the market with wagers on the home team. DraftKings reported that the United States accounts for 43% of all tickets written and 35% of the total money handle.
Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings, confirmed the exposure. “If the U.S. wins the whole thing, I would say we’re going to have a pretty significant liability on them,” Avello stated.
He explained that the American public backs the national team in every match regardless of the opponent. A deep run by the USMNT would force operators to make “big decisions” regarding risk mitigation.
Middle Market Shifts and Player Props
The draw influenced prices most heavily among teams outside the top five. Uruguay saw their implied probability drop, with odds lengthening from +5000 to +6500, after landing in a difficult group with Spain.
Conversely, Belgium saw their odds shorten from +5000 to +4000 due to a favorable path through the group stage. Norway, returning to the tournament for the first time since 1998, is positioned as a “sleeper” choice with odds ranging from +2500 to +2800.
In the individual awards market, Kylian Mbappé opens as the favorite for the Golden Boot at +600. Harry Kane follows at +700. Lionel Messi is listed at +1200, while Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal both sit at +1400. Cristiano Ronaldo is priced at +2000.
Record Volume Anticipated
Operators expect the 2026 tournament to generate unprecedented betting volume. The expanded format includes more matches, and the North American location ensures games occur during prime hours for US customers.
Bickerdike projects this will be the “highest handle Soccer competition the industry has ever seen.” He noted that soccer now trails only football, basketball, and baseball in popularity among Caesars’ bettors.
The extended schedule, featuring only five rest days over six weeks, provides a constant flow of inventory for live betting and futures markets.
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