Robinhood Rolls Out NBA and NHL Moneyline Markets with Kalshi

A Bold Bet on Sports Trading

Robinhood is rolling out moneyline-style prediction markets for NBA and NHL playoff games through its partnership with Kalshi. These event contracts let users trade on game outcomes, like whether the Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Florida Panthers top the Carolina Hurricanes, mimicking traditional moneyline bets.

“We believe in the power of prediction markets and think they play an important role at the intersection of news, economics, politics, sports, and culture,” said JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP & GM of Futures and International, pitching the markets as a sweet new way to engage fans.

But states like Nevada and New Jersey are crying foul, slamming the markets as unlicensed gambling.

Moneyline Markets Hit the Ice and Court

The new markets zero in on high-stakes playoff action. In the NBA, users can trade contracts on games like Timberwolves vs. Thunder and Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, betting on which team wins outright.

For the NHL, matchups include Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars, with contracts tied to game or series outcomes.

Unlike sportsbooks, where you bet against the house, Robinhood’s peer-to-peer model lets users buy and sell contracts, priced from $0.01 to $0.99, with a $1 payout if correct.

“Prediction markets are an incredibly powerful asset class,” said Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, touting their “societal value” as a better source of information.

Kalshi’s Role and Regulatory Loophole

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform, powers Robinhood’s markets, framing them as financial derivatives, not bets. This lets them operate in all 50 states, including Texas and California, where sports betting’s illegal.

“Kalshi believes in the value of regulation and operates under the comprehensive oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,” said Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, defending their model after New Jersey’s cease-and-desist order.

But states aren’t buying it. Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Illinois, Maryland, and Connecticut have issued cease-and-desist notices or probes, arguing the markets dodge taxes and consumer protections like age checks.

“They’re conducting sports wagering without a license,” said Maryland’s John Martin, noting legal operators pay state taxes.

Regulatory Pushback Intensifies

The regulatory fire’s heating up. Some states, like Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Illinois, and Maryland, have sent cease-and-desist letters, with Massachusetts and Connecticut investigating.

“Purchasing a contract based on which team a person thinks will win a sporting event is no different than placing a bet through a traditional sportsbook,” said Ohio’s Matthew Schuler, flagging risks for users under 21. Kalshi’s fighting back, suing Nevada and New Jersey, with a Nevada court granting a temporary injunction in April, per Front Office Sports.

“The threatened actions in Nevada and New Jersey seek to undermine not just Kalshi’s contracts, but the authority granted by Congress to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,” Mansour said, calling prediction markets a “critical innovation.”