Polymarket Poised for Limited US Launch by November

Focus on Sports Contracts and Market Timing

Polymarket’s reentry strategy centers heavily on sports outcome contracts. The platform’s anticipated launch in late November is designed to capitalize on the lucrative U.S. sports calendar.

This timing aligns with the conclusion of the regular college football season and the later stages of the NFL, NBA, and college basketball seasons. Sports-based contracts are a key driver in the prediction market sector. Estimates show that more than 80% of the trading volume of Polymarket’s main competitor, Kalshi, comes from sports event contracts.

Polymarket was banished from the U.S. in 2022 after settling charges of illegal trading with the federal Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The settlement included a $1.4 million penalty. The return now follows a stunning turnaround in the regulatory environment. Both the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the CFTC dropped investigations into the crypto-centric platform earlier this year.

To operate legally, Polymarket acquired a firm named QCX. This company already held the necessary CFTC licenses for a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. This acquisition cleared the regulatory pathway for the platform’s return.

Surging Valuation and Cryptocurrency Focus

Polymarket’s reentry comes amid surging valuations and increased competition in the prediction market space.

The speculation about a U.S. return follows a massive investment earlier this month. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), acquired a $2 billion stake in Polymarket.

This transaction valued the exchange at an estimated $9 billion to $10 billion. Market rumors suggest Polymarket may seek another funding round soon, potentially at a valuation of $12 billion to $15 billion.

Polymarket is viewed as more cryptocurrency-centric than its rivals. The platform uses digital currencies, mainly stablecoins, for trading and is supported by blockchain technology. This crypto focus is cited by observers as a primary reason for the large valuation difference between Polymarket and its competitor, Kalshi.

Cryptocurrency communities widely believe that the prediction market giant’s return to the U.S. is a precursor to the launch of its own cryptocurrency token (likely named “POLY”) and a potential airdrop. While development on the token is thought to be underway, efforts are reportedly taking a backseat to solidifying the company’s U.S. re-launch.

Polymarket’s return coincides with intense competition. The Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) just announced a partnership with Crypto.com to integrate event contracts on its Truth Social platform. Established rivals like Kalshi Inc. are also reporting growth. Furthermore, major betting firms like DraftKings are exploring prediction services, increasing the complexity of the competitive field.