Mastering the Moneyline: Simple Wagers on Game Winners

Moneylines form the foundation of sports betting, appealing to both beginners and experts because they cut through the complexity of point spreads and scoring totals. Your only task is to correctly predict the ultimate winner.

What a Moneyline Bet Is and Isn’t

A moneyline wager is a simple binary choice: Team A wins or Team B wins.

• Who Wins? This is the only question that matters. If you bet on the favored Los Angeles Lakers, they must win the game for your bet to cash. If they win by $1$ point or $20$ points, the payout is the same.
• No Margin of Victory: This is the key difference from a point spread bet. A team favored by $-7$ points must win by $8$ or more to “cover” the spread. In a moneyline bet, the $-7$ favorite only needs to win by $1$.
• No Scoring Required: Moneyline bets are distinct from Totals (Over/Under) bets, which focus only on the combined score. A moneyline bet can be won regardless of whether the game is high-scoring or a defensive slugfest.

In most North American sports, the moneyline is a two-outcome wager. In sports like soccer or boxing/MMA, a third outcome—a draw or tie—may be offered. If no draw option is offered and a tie occurs (rare in the NFL, common in the NHL if betting regulation time), the bet is typically a push and the stake is refunded.

Reading Moneyline Odds and Calculating Payouts

Moneyline odds are usually displayed using the American odds format, which uses a plus ($+$) or minus ($-$) sign centered around a $\$100$ baseline.

Note: You can bet any amount, and the payouts scale proportionally.

Implied Probability

The moneyline odds also reflect the implied win probability assigned by the oddsmaker (before the house edge is added). Understanding this probability is crucial for finding value:

When to Choose Moneyline Betting

Moneylines are most effective in specific scenarios and sports where the margin of victory is either unpredictable or minimal.

1. Low-Scoring Sports

Moneylines are the preferred way to bet on low-scoring games like baseball (MLB) and hockey (NHL).

• Baseball: The standard “run line” is always −1.5 for the favorite, but since many games are decided by a single run, most bettors prefer to just bet the winner on the moneyline. Historically, MLB underdogs win about $42\%$ of games, making an underdog strategy viable.
• Hockey: Similarly, the “puck line” is −1.5 goals. Because games frequently end with a one-goal margin (often decided in overtime or a shootout), most bettors opt for the moneyline instead of requiring a win by two or more goals.

2. Backing Underdogs for High Payouts

When you believe an underdog has a genuine chance to win outright, the moneyline offers a significantly higher payout than betting the spread.

• If an underdog in the NFL is getting +7 points, their moneyline might be +250. If you think they can pull off the upset, the $\$250$ profit on a $\$100$ bet is far more lucrative than the spread payout (typically $\$100$ profit on a $\$110$stake).
• Upset Potential: Underdogs in combat sports like MMA and Boxing frequently offer massive payouts because a single, well-placed strike can end the contest.

3. Avoiding the Margin

When you are confident in a team to win but are unsure if they can “cover” a large spread (e.g., a −10 favorite in the NBA), the moneyline is the safer option. You accept a lower payout (e.g., −600) for the certainty that any win secures the bet, preventing “backdoor covers” (late, meaningless points that ruin a spread bet).

Moneyline Betting in Specific Sports

Combat Sports (Boxing & MMA) 🥊

Moneyline is the primary bet type in combat sports, as there are no point spreads. Odds can be extremely lopsided due to skill differences.

• Strategy: Underdog betting is popular here. Because a single punch can result in a knockout, many bettors will place smaller, disciplined wagers on high-odds underdogs (+300 to +800) knowing they only need to hit one out of every few bets to turn a profit.

Football and Basketball (NFL, NBA, NCAA) 🏈🏀

In these high-scoring sports, the point spread often dominates, but moneylines are used for:

• Upset Plays: NFL underdogs win outright roughly $25\%$ to $35\%$ of the time, making careful selections valuable. Big upsets, like the 2023 Cardinals over the Cowboys, can yield payouts of +500 or more.
• Favorites in Parlays: Many bettors combine several heavy moneyline favorites into a parlay to increase the total odds, reducing the need to lay heavy “juice” on each individual bet (e.g., combining three −300 favorites can result in a parlay payout of roughly +120).

Strategies for Moneyline Success

Long-term profitability in moneyline betting depends on finding value rather than simply picking winners.

1. Value Hunting (Pick the Right Price)

The goal is to find instances where the sportsbook’s implied probability is lower than your own assessment of the true win probability.

• If you calculate an underdog has a $40\%$ chance to win, but they are listed at +200 (which implies only a $33.3\%$chance), that is a value bet (or overlay). You must take this bet even if you think the team will lose $60\%$ of the time, because the odds overcompensate you for the risk.

2. Line Shopping is Non-Negotiable

Moneyline odds can vary significantly between sportsbooks, especially on underdogs. Always compare odds across multiple sites. Consistently getting +150 instead of +140 on winning bets can make a massive difference in your profitability over the course of a season.

3. Fading Public Bias

Oddsmakers often adjust moneylines based on heavy public betting (especially on popular teams or favorites). This can inflate the price of the favorite, creating value on the underdog.

• Experienced bettors may bet underdogs late (after the public drives the line up) and bet favorites early (before the public shortens the line). If the line moves in a way that suggests “sharp” money is involved (e.g., the moneyline shortens on an underdog despite most bets being on the favorite), it can be a signal to follow that trend.