Kalshi and Polymarket Top Apple App Store on Election Day

Polymarket’s Success and the Rise of Prediction Markets

Polymarket gained immense popularity during the recently concluded presidential campaign, as evidenced by its second-place ranking among free apps in the Apple App Store on Election Day 2024.

The app surpassed popular names like Threads, McDonald’s, ChatGPT, and even Google. On Election Day, Polymarket reported an impressive total trading volume of $3.2 billion.

Kalshi also saw a surge in popularity, topping the list of free downloads on the Apple App Store on Election Day, even surpassing Polymarket.

Between October 4 and noon on Election Day, Kalshi had processed contracts totaling $250.5 million.

Another significant player in election betting, Robinhood, also reported success. Since offering election-related contracts the previous week, Robinhood recorded over 100 million contracts traded on its platform.

The platform allowed users to trade election contracts for 12 hours a day, with settlement planned for January 7, and payouts the following day.

Debate Around Prediction Market Platforms

A lively discussion surrounds platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood, focusing on their impact on the electoral process and democracy.

Supporters argue that prediction markets respond to campaign events in real-time, offering a dynamic view of voter sentiment that may provide more up-to-date insights than traditional polling.

The sharp increase in Trump’s trading odds on Polymarket and Kalshi on election night signaled his rising chances of victory before official results were announced.

Moreover, the potential to profit from prediction markets may encourage citizens to follow campaigns closely, analyze policy platforms, and engage in public debate.

However, there are concerns about the darker side of these platforms. Some fear that individuals or groups with substantial financial resources could manipulate markets to sway public opinion or even election outcomes.

Senator Jeff Merkley described the recent court decision allowing election betting as a “nightmare,” warning that it could lead to corruption and unfair practices.

Additionally, the user base of betting platforms, especially those using cryptocurrency, may not be representative of the general electorate. Polymarket users, for instance, are primarily those interested in cryptocurrency and decentralization.

The lack of clear regulations also poses risks of fraud, manipulation, and limited protection for market participants. Operating outside U.S. jurisdiction, Polymarket is an example of a platform that avoids domestic oversight, complicating enforcement of standards and the prevention of potential abuses.