Jason Robins Bullish Despite $300 Million Headwind From Sports Outcomes
DraftKings executives emphasized the core strength of the business during the Q3 2025 earnings call, even while reporting a significant financial hit.
The company’s $1.144 billion revenue and negative $127 million adjusted EBITDA were impacted by what management called a “pronounced impact of customer-friendly sports outcomes.” This unusual sports variance reduced revenue by more than $300 million in September and October alone, largely due to just a few key NFL games.
Despite revising full-year financial targets, CEO Jason Robins maintained a highly positive view on the company’s future.
Management Commentary on Volatility
CEO Jason Robins spoke directly to the short-term impact of the outcomes while stressing the long-term stability of the business model.
On the financial volatility:
“In September and October, customer-friendly sport outcomes impacted our revenue by more than $300 million as just a handful of NFL games had a pronounced effect.”
On the overall health of the company:
“This is the most bullish I have ever felt about our future. That may sound surprising given we are revising our fiscal year 2025 guidance ranges today, however, underlying growth in our business is accelerating.”
On the long-term view:
The company reiterated that short-term sports outcomes “do not affect the underlying earnings power of our business.”
Metrics Show Underlying Growth
While the top-line revenue was suppressed by the sports results, the underlying customer engagement metrics were strong. This validated management’s view that the business is fundamentally healthy.
- Sportsbook Handle (total wagers accepted) grew 10% year-over-year, hitting $11.4 billion.
- Monthly Unique Payers (MUPs) showed “healthy” growth, increasing 6% year-over-year (excluding the Jackpocket acquisition’s impact).
- iGaming net revenue growth accelerated to 25% year-over-year, its fastest pace since Q1 2024.
CFO Alan Ellingson focused on the future trajectory, including risk management measures that enhance stability. “With handle growth accelerating and parlay handle mix continuing to increase, we are excited about the trajectory of our Free Cash Flow,” Ellingson said, pointing to a desirable mix of wagers that typically improves hold percentage over time.
He added that the board authorized a doubling of the share repurchase program from $1.0 billion to $2.0 billion, reflecting confidence in the company’s valuation and long-term earnings potential.
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