iGaming Weekly Recap (April 21–27, 2025): Betting Industry Stuck in (Dis)Comfort Zone
We’re still in the dark about what’s next for prediction markets, and it’s anyone’s guess if even a single state will legalize online sports betting this year. This week was all about uncertainty. Catch up on the latest from Nebraska, Hawaii, and the canceled CFTC roundtable in our Weekly Recap!
The much-hyped CFTC roundtable on prediction markets, which had everyone in the industry buzzing, isn’t happening. This throws another wrench into the already messy debate over prediction markets, stuck in a legal gray zone between state accusations of violating gambling laws and the CFTC’s refusal to take a clear stance. Neither potential roundtable participants nor the public got any word on why it was canceled or whether it’ll ever be rescheduled. This could shake things up for Kalshi, which is defending its products in court battles in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland.
Speaking of Maryland, Kalshi’s taking the state regulator to court after receiving a cease-and-desist letter. The company’s riding high on a preliminary injunction it won in Nevada, which has become a cornerstone of its arguments in other lawsuits. But things are moving fast, and U.S. District Court Judge Andrew Gordon isn’t fully sold on Kalshi’s case. At times, the company’s messaging about the heart of the issue seems to lose its way, making the situation trickier.
Last week was a dud for both prediction markets and online sports betting expansion. In Nebraska, Sen. Eliot Bostar pulled his LR 20CA bill after it failed to gain enough support in the state legislature. That means Nebraska’s stuck without legal betting for another year. Here’s the catch: prediction platforms like Kalshi claim they offer legal sports betting in all 50 states. This creates a messy problem for states still grappling with legalization, tying into the broader confusion over the legal status of Kalshi, Crypto.com, and other prediction platforms.
There’s a glimmer of good news from Hawaii, the only state still in the running to legalize sports betting this year. The bill hit a conference committee and will likely see tweaks, mostly around license fees, but its chances of passing are still solid. Gov. Green’s neutral stance helps—he’s not likely to block the bill if it lands on his desk.
Sportradar dropped its preliminary financial forecasts for Q1 2025, and things are looking up for the company. Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, Sportradar’s holding strong, projecting €307–311 million in revenue—a hefty jump from €256.9 million last year—and €20–24 million in profit. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to hit €56–58 million. The full report comes out May 12, 2025, with an earnings call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Bonus: Betting Industry Stuck in a Rough Spot
Last week’s events speak for themselves: the betting industry’s in a weird limbo where everyone’s feeling uneasy. Dreams of state-regulated online sports betting in Nebraska are dead. Hawaii’s the only hope for any progress, aside from Missouri’s upcoming market launch, but even that’s not a done deal.
This shaky environment could be fertile ground for products like prediction markets and maybe even sweepstakes casinos. Speaking of the latter, Michigan recently sent out 11 cease-and-desist letters targeting these operations. Despite plenty of criticism and legal pushback, sweepstakes casinos keep dodging the heat for now, while the spotlight stays firmly on prediction markets.
Things aren’t looking crystal-clear for prediction markets either. Kalshi’s locked in lawsuits in three states, with six states total sending cease-and-desist letters. Some states, like Tennessee, held off on quick moves, likely banking on clarity from the CFTC’s now-canceled roundtable. That roundtable? Yeah, it’s not happening. At least not anytime soon.
No Easy Fix for Kalshi’s Battles
If the CFTC’s waiting for Kalshi and the states to hash things out on their own, it’s not looking promising. Both sides are digging in hard. Even though U.S. District Court Judge Gordon is nudging them toward mediation to sort out the mess without court rulings, their interests are so at odds that a compromise feels like a long shot.
The CFTC’s stance was supposed to be the big reveal. Kalshi’s leaning on its small courtroom win in Nevada, but a nod from the CFTC, especially if it leans pro-prediction markets, would’ve been a major boost, reinforcing that federal oversight, not state rules, governs their business.
Right now, it’s a total mess, and untangling it won’t happen fast. Operators are left in the dark, unsure if they should start adapting to a new reality (probably a smart move) or if the old status quo will hold.
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