How to Bet on MLB Futures: A Simple Strategy Guide

The best strategy for bettors is to focus on value bets on underdogs, shop for the best odds, and use hedging to secure profits. Historical data shows that preseason favorites win the World Series only about 15% to 20% of the time, making bets on undervalued teams more profitable in the long run. Betting small stakes, about $50 to $100, at the start of the season can lead to large returns if your pick goes all the way.

What Are MLB Futures Bets?

Futures bets are resolved at the end of the Major League Baseball season, not on a single day. These wagers are available in over 30 US states where regulated sports betting is legal. Odds change throughout the year as team performance and player health shift.

Popular Types of MLB Futures

• World Series Winner: Betting on the team that will lift the trophy (e.g., Los Angeles Dodgers at +500).
• League Pennant: Picking the American League (AL) or National League (NL) champion.
• Division Winner: Wagers on the winner of one of the six divisions.
• Team Win Totals: Betting over or under a set number of regular-season wins (e.g., Yankees over 92.5 wins at -110).
• Player Awards: Betting on individual accolades like the Most Valuable Player (MVP) or the Cy Young Award.

Futures odds are listed in American format, like +500, which means a $100 bet would win $500 in profit. The higher the number, the bigger the potential payout and the lower the implied probability.

Step-by-Step Guide to Placing an MLB Futures Bet

Placing a futures bet is simple and takes just a few minutes on a mobile app or website.

1. Choose a Licensed Sportsbook: Select a legal platform in your state, such as DraftKings or FanDuel.

2. Sign Up and Deposit: Create an account, provide your personal details for verification, and deposit a minimum of $10. Many sportsbooks offer welcome bonuses like “bet $5, get $200.”

3. Find the Futures Market: Navigate to the MLB section, and look for the Futures tab.

4. Select Your Wager: Review the list of teams or players and their odds. Click on the outcome you want to bet on.

5. Enter Your Stake and Confirm: Enter the amount of money you want to bet (your stake) into the bet slip. Confirm the wager to lock in your odds.

Once confirmed, your funds are tied up until the outcome is decided at the end of the season.

Smart Strategies for Futures Betting

Success in MLB futures requires focusing on data and smart position management, rather than betting on personal favorites.

1. Focus on Value Betting

Value betting means finding odds that are better than your own assessment of a team’s actual chances.

• Calculate Implied Probability: Convert the odds to an implied probability. For example, +300 odds means a 25% chance of winning ($100 / ($300 + $100)\times 100$).
• Bet on Longshots: Research suggests that over-reliance on favorites often leads to losses. Look for underdogs with strong pitching depth or a favorable schedule that the public may be overlooking.
• Use Data: Avoid emotional picks. Use sites like Baseball Reference or Fangraphs for historical statistics and advanced projections to guide your choices.

2. Shop for the Best Lines

Odds for the same team can vary across different sportsbooks. Shopping lines can increase your return on investment (ROI) by 1% to 5%. If one book offers a team at +800 and another offers them at +1000, always take the +1000 odds for the higher payout.

3. Hedge to Guarantee Profit

Hedging is a strategy where you place a bet against your original pick later in the season to secure a guaranteed profit.

Example: You bet $100 on the Astros to win the World Series at +800 at the start of the season (potential $800 profit). If the Astros make it to the World Series, their opponent may have odds of +200. You can bet $400 on their opponent to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.

• If Astros win: You win $800 on the original bet, but lose the $400 hedge. Net profit: $400.
• If Opponent wins: You lose the original $100 bet, but win $800 ($400 stake + $400 profit) on the hedge. Net profit: $300.

Risks and Tips for Responsible Play

Futures bets are a long-term investment that ties up a portion of your bankroll for the entire MLB season.

• Risk of Injuries: Injuries impact a significant number of outcomes. Losing a star pitcher or hitter mid-season can quickly derail a futures bet.
• Limit Your Exposure: Start with small stakes. A common practice is to bet only 1% to 2% of your total betting bankroll on any single futures bet.
• Bet Early: The best odds are typically available before the season begins. As the season progresses and contenders emerge, their odds will shorten, meaning the potential payout decreases.
• Monitor for Cash-Outs: Some sportsbooks offer a “cash-out” feature that lets you settle a bet early for a smaller profit or to cut your losses. Check your betting app for these options throughout the season.