Common Mistakes in NFL Football Betting and How to Avoid Them

The single most damaging mistake is chasing losses, a behavior that typically affects over 50% of bettors during cold streaks and quickly escalates financial risk. Avoiding this and other common pitfalls is the fastest route to improving your long-term results.

1. The Financial and Emotional Traps

These errors relate directly to a lack of planning and self-control.

Mistake: Chasing Losses

What It Is: Increasing your bet size immediately after a loss in a desperate attempt to recover funds. This is a highly emotional response driven by frustration and the sunk cost fallacy.

The Cost: This strategy ignores proper analysis and compounds financial harm. Chasing losses is a major indicator of problem gambling. 

How to Avoid:

Set a Loss Limit: Define a maximum amount you can lose daily or weekly. Stop betting entirely when you hit that limit.

• Take a Break: Use app tools for a session timeout after any significant loss. Clear your mind before placing the next wager.

Mistake: Poor Bankroll Management

What It Is: Betting too much money on a single game or not clearly separating betting funds from your essential living expenses.

The Cost: Betting too high a percentage of your bankroll on one play exposes you to “ruin” during inevitable losing streaks.

How to Avoid:

• Use Units: Never risk more than 1% to 3% of your total bankroll on any single bet. (e.g., A $\$1,000$ bankroll means a maximum $\$30$ bet).
• Flat Betting: Stick to betting the same small amount (one unit) on every game, regardless of how confident you feel.

Mistake: Over-Reliance on Parlays

What It Is: Combining two or more bets into a parlay to chase massive payouts. While tempting, parlays multiply the house edge with each leg added.

The Cost: Parlays are the house’s largest profit generator. Mathematically, the odds offered are usually worse than the true probability of all events winning, making them negative Expected Value (-EV).

How to Avoid:

• Limit Parlays: Use parlays sparingly and only for small-stake entertainment.
• Focus on Singles: Build your core strategy around straight bets (Spread, Moneyline, Totals), which offer a lower house edge.

2. The Research and Data Mistakes

These errors stem from flawed analysis and a lack of objectivity.

Mistake: Betting with Emotion or Bias

What It Is: Allowing personal feelings, team loyalty, or overconfidence to influence wagers. This includes betting a large amount after a recent win, which creates an “illusion of control.”

The Cost: Emotional bets severely reduce objectivity, and data shows wagers placed on favored teams often underperform by 5% to 10% ATS.

How to Avoid:

• Stay Objective: Base every bet on data, not on which team you like. Avoid betting on your favorite team if you find it difficult to stay neutral.
• Review Full History: Consistently track your wins and losses to maintain a realistic perspective on your true winning percentage.

Mistake: Overreacting to Recent Performance (Recency Bias)

What It Is: Placing undue emphasis on a team’s last game or short winning/losing streak, while ignoring long-term trends and season-wide data.

The Cost: You buy into inflated lines when a team is hot and miss value when a quality team is undervalued after a fluke loss. Teams eventually regress to the mean.

How to Avoid: Evaluate teams using a season-long perspective. Use advanced metrics like DVOA or EPA to gauge true team efficiency, which provides a clearer picture than a box score from last Sunday.

Mistake: Ignoring Line Movements and Odds Shopping

What It Is: Placing a bet at the first odds you see without checking other sportsbooks for a better price or failing to note why a line is moving.

The Cost: Not shopping for the best price loses you 1% to 2% of your potential long-term return. Getting a line at -3.5 instead of -3 is often the difference between a loss and a push.

How to Avoid:

• Open Multiple Accounts: Maintain accounts at several legal sportsbooks (e.g., FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM) to compare odds instantly.
• Monitor Splits: Pay attention to reverse line movement, where the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the public money. This often signals that “sharp money” (professional bettors) is taking a contrary position, creating a value opportunity.

Quick-Start Checklist for Avoiding Mistakes

1. Set Limits: Define your bankroll and stick to 1-3% unit sizing.
2. No Chasing: Never increase your bet size after a loss.
3. Shop Lines: Always compare odds across multiple apps.
4. Research: Use advanced metrics (DVOA/EPA), injuries, and weather as primary research points.
5. Be Selective: Limit your wagers to 3–5 games per week where you see a clear statistical advantage.

If you struggle with controlling your betting, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER.