Betting the Total: A Guide to Over/Under Wagers

This type of bet is incredibly popular because of its simplicity: you don’t need to guess the exact score, just whether the combined score falls above or below the set line. For instance, if an NFL game’s total is set at 45.5, an Over bet wins if 46 or more points are scored, and an Under bet wins if 45 or fewer points are scored. This wager is one of the top three most common bet types, alongside point spreads and moneylines.

The Basics of Over/Under Betting

How the Bet Works

A sportsbook sets a total, which is their best estimate of the combined final score. Bettors then decide if the true final score will go Over or stay Under that number.

Most totals are set using half-point increments (e.g., 45.5 in football or 8.5 in baseball) to prevent a tie. If the actual combined score lands exactly on the bookmaker’s whole number (e.g., a total of 48 is set, and the final score is exactly 48), it’s a push, and all wagers are refunded.

Understanding the Odds (The Vig)

Totals bets usually have odds similar to point spreads, most often -110 on both the Over and the Under. This -110 price includes the vigorish (or vig), which is the house commission. At -110 odds, you risk $110 to win $100.

For a bettor to simply break even over the long run, they must win 52.38% of their Over/Under wagers after accounting for the vig. This means even a 51% winning rate isn’t profitable due to the house edge.

Setting the Line: How Sportsbooks Choose the Total

Oddsmakers use a detailed process to set an Over/Under line, aiming for a number that attracts balanced betting on both sides.

The Oddsmaker’s Process

1. Statistical Modeling: Bookmakers use statistical models and power ratings to predict the most likely combined score. They factor in offensive output, defensive strength, pace of play, and recent performances for both teams.
2. Contextual Adjustments: The baseline model is adjusted for game-specific factors.
   • Injuries: Losing a star player (like a quarterback or leading scorer) usually lowers the total.
   • Venue: High-altitude baseball parks, like Coors Field, tend to raise run totals.
   • Pace: A basketball total will be adjusted upward if two teams with fast paces (high number of possessions) are playing.
3. Weather’s Impact: In outdoor sports like football, baseball, and soccer, weather is crucial. Strong winds, heavy rain, or snow generally suppress scoring and cause totals to drop.

Line Movement and Sharp Bettors

After the opening total is posted, sportsbooks adjust the line based on betting action.

• If professional bettors (often called sharps) quickly bet the Over, the bookmaker might raise the total by a point or two.
• If the book sees lopsided action on the Over but the line doesn’t move, it may instead adjust the odds (or juice). For example, they might keep the total at 48.5 but shift the Over odds to -120 to make the Under +100 to encourage bets on the Under.

These adjustments continue until game time as the book reacts to betting patterns and new information.

Key Factors That Influence Scoring

Predicting a total requires evaluating any factor that influences how many times each team scores.

Strategies for Totals Betting

Successful totals bettors combine data analysis with a disciplined betting approach.

Line Shopping

Always compare the total and the odds at multiple sportsbooks. Totals can vary by a half-point or more between books, and even a difference in the -110 odds can hurt your long-term profit. Getting an extra half-point in your favor—such as an Under at 49 instead of 48.5—can be the difference between a win and a push.

Timing the Bet

A common tactic is “Overs early, Unders late.”

• Bet Overs Early: Casual bettors (the public) tend to favor the Over and often place their wagers closer to game time. Betting the Over early can lock in a lower number before the line potentially drifts upward from public money.
• Bet Unders Late: If you like the Under, waiting may allow the public’s late Over-betting wave to inflate the line, potentially giving you a higher total to bet against.

Identifying Value

Success comes from finding a difference between the sportsbook’s line and your own projection. If your statistical model predicts a total of 50 points, but the book has set the line at 46.5, that suggests a strong potential value on the Over. Only wager when there is a clear, analytical reason to believe the line is incorrect.

Watching Line Movement

Monitoring how a total moves can tell a story. If a total jumps from 47 to 49 early in the week, it often signals that sharp money (professional bettors) is driving the movement. If the line moves opposite to where most of the public’s money is going, it is called reverse line movement, which can be a strong signal that sharps are on the less popular side.

Over/Under Dynamics by Sport

While the core concept is the same, scoring ranges and influential factors change depending on the sport. Most sports include overtime scoring in the total, with soccer being the notable exception (soccer totals usually count 90 minutes only).

Psychological Biases to Avoid

Betting decisions can be swayed by human psychology. Being aware of these biases can help you make more rational choices:

• Bias Toward the Over: Recreational bettors often prefer the Over because it’s more fun to root for scoring. This optimism bias can cause the public to overestimate the final score and inflate the Over line, sometimes creating inherent value on the Under.
• Recency Bias: This is when bettors put too much weight on a team’s most recent game. If a team just had a 50-point shootout, bettors might rush to take the Over on their next game, even if the opponent or conditions are completely different.
• Confirmation Bias: Looking only for stats or news that support the bet you already want to make while ignoring contradictory information.

Professional bettors often find value in the Under because they know the public’s love for high-scoring games typically pushes the Over line a bit higher than it should be. The goal is to base your bet on objective factors, not on the excitement of rooting for points.