iGaming Weekly Recap (April 7–13, 2025): Brave New World
Nothing’s set in stone yet, but it looks like the noisy new neighbors of the sports betting industry aren’t moving out anytime soon. Kalshi scored a small, partial, yet significant win in Nevada and is calmly awaiting the CFTC’s next move. We dive deeper into this in the newsletter’s bonus section. Plus, in this week’s roundup: a Schrödinger’s deal in California, Aloha spirit paving the way for the 40th state with legal betting, and much more.
Quite unexpectedly, Hawaii is on track to become the 40th state with legal online sports betting. On Tuesday, the Senate gave the green light to a bill with an 18-7 vote, sending it to the House of Representatives. The bill already passed the House earlier, but minor amendments now need a fresh look, and the House might consider tweaking a few details, nothing major can be ruled out.
Key points include the oversight body and licensing costs. As of now, it’s a 10% tax on adjusted gross revenue and $250,000 fees. Next, it heads to Governor Josh Green’s desk for signing; he’s been cautious so far. SBC Americas suggests his stance is along the lines of “I’m neutral on betting, but extra cash wouldn’t hurt.” If the bill clears these final hurdles, legal betting in the Aloha State could launch this year.
Kalshi notched its first big court win in Nevada. U.S. District Judge Andrew P. Gordon ruled that the prediction market platform can continue offering services in the state during the trial. Multiple sources, including Andrew Kim and Dustin Gouker, report that Nevada’s arguments were sloppy, which doesn’t bode well for their case. For now, Kalshi stays in Nevada, awaiting two key developments: initial rulings in New Jersey and the CFTC roundtable. CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour stands firm: “Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC, and no state can dictate what we do.”
Meanwhile, former American Gaming Association Senior VP Sara Slane joined Kalshi’s skilled team. “I’ve spent years in the sports industry, and after my many accomplishments let me build a successful solo consulting business, I thought I’d only work for myself,” she wrote in a statement.
California tribes firmly denied reaching any deal with commercial sports betting operators on opening an online wagering market. They voiced frustration over the leak of private talks and the presence of a reporter invited by the Sports Betting Alliance (SBA). Jeff Grubbe, former chair of the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, said the effort will be “tribal-led” and centered on safeguarding their brick-and-mortar turf. Victor Rocha of the Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians hit harder, calling the SBA’s plan “dead on arrival” after polling tribal leaders.
Still, the SBA and tribes share some overlap: both worry about threats from prediction markets and sweepstakes casinos. Earlier, when mending ties with tribes before the plan was labeled DOA, DraftKings’ Jeremy Elbaum pledged that despite prediction market ambitions, the company won’t launch that product in California. The tribes’ stance feels resolute, but this isn’t the end of the debate over commercial operators’ role in California. It’s shaping up as a costly venture that could pay off long-term for the biggest players.
Bonus: Looks Like Prediction Markets Are Here to Stay
Signs point to Kalshi dodging legal trouble once again. It survived the grueling Designated Contract Market process, beat the CFTC in court over election contracts, and now notched a partial win in Nevada. Even the biggest prediction market skeptics should start facing facts: Kalshi’s here to stay, and for operators, it’s a wake-up call in a shifting landscape.
Kalshi has a strong case for a full Nevada victory, and though New Jersey’s battle looms, this first legal win is a big deal. The company insists it falls under CFTC federal oversight, leaving states with little say over its operations.
The CFTC’s keeping quiet as long as it can. Dustin Gouker reports a prediction markets roundtable is slated for April 30, though it’s not official yet. That’s when the real showdown over Kalshi and other platforms will kick off.
The stars are aligning for Tarek Mansour’s crew. History suggests Kalshi knows its moves, stepping carefully to avoid traps. Only a wild twist could derail prediction markets now, but where’s that coming from?
DraftKings Predict shows sports betting operators are ready to jump in. Legal betting in all 50 states? It might happen sooner – and in the way – nobody saw coming just recently.
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