FBI Raids Polymarket CEO’s House over Alleged Illegal US Betting Operations

Polymarket is denying this, calling the FBI’s move “clear political retribution from the outgoing administration” because of the platform’s accurate prediction.

Polymarket and Its Trump-Favored Election Predictions

Before the election Polymarket got popular, especially when it offered odds that were heavily in Trump’s favor even as most polls had Trump and Kamala Harris in a tight race.

This big difference in odds put Polymarket in the news. Although Polymarket officially banned US users in 2022 after a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over registration issues, some users reportedly found a way to bypass this by using VPN.

The FBI took Coplan’s phone and other devices. According to sources the search happened early in the morning and agents asked for Coplan’s devices as part of their investigation. The FBI and the Department of Justice have not commented on the situation so the motives and outcome of the raid are unknown.

Polymarket’s Odds vs Public Polls

One of the reasons Polymarket got noticed was the big difference between its odds and public polls. While the polls had the race neck and neck, Polymarket’s odds were in Trump’s favor so people were wondering how accurate and how Polymarket came up with those predictions.

Polymarket has not released detailed odds and has not explained how much they favored Trump so questions remain about their data modeling and possible influences.

Adding to the Polymarket drama is a French trader known as the “Polymarket whale”. This person bet big on Trump to win and made over $46 million.

The whale’s big win and influence on the market has raised questions about the role of big bettors in shaping odds and how it can affect public perception of the race.