Sports Betting Revenue Forecast in the US 2026

This consensus forecast is based on an estimated Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% from 2025 to 2030, a deceleration from the initial post-legalization boom years. The online and mobile segments are expected to drive the vast majority of this growth, potentially reaching US$14.8 billion just for regulated online sports betting.

Market Size and Revenue Forecast for 2026

Forecasts for 2026 position the U.S. sports betting market as highly mature, but still with significant latent potential.

Total Sports Betting Market (GGR)

Current analysis suggests the regulated U.S. sports betting market will settle in the mid-US$20 billion range in 2026.

This strong forecast is driven by continuous state-by-state legalization and the shift to high-engagement digital platforms.

Growth Stage: From Boom to Maturity

The U.S. market will transition from its explosive “early adoption” phase into a more mature growth phase by 2026.

• Initial Growth (2018–2023): Fueled by mass legalization and mobile launches in states like New York, revenue saw rapid spikes (CAGR over $20\%$).
• Decelerated Growth (2025–2030): The market is projected to settle at a CAGR of around 10.9% through the end of the decade. This moderation reflects the fact that the initial, easy-to-acquire customer base has been integrated into the legal market.
• Online Dominance: The online platform is expected to remain the largest and fastest-growing segment, holding an estimated 69.7% share of the total market in 2024, a trend that will only deepen by 2026.

Key Drivers and Upside Potential

The 2026 forecasts are heavily dependent on which, and how many, major states transition from offline or illegal wagering to regulated online markets.

1. The Mobile Technology Engine

The bulk of the market growth is fueled by technology innovation that increases user engagement and volume.

• In-Play/Live Betting: Wagers placed during the game are the highest-growth format, offering real-time, dynamic odds.
• Micro-Betting: The ability to bet on granular, short-term outcomes (e.g., the result of the next pitch or the next drive) enhances user engagement, particularly among younger demographics.
• Media Integration: Partnerships between major operators (like FanDuel and DraftKings) and media companies (like ESPN) are seamlessly integrating betting odds and features into live broadcasts, further driving adoption.

2. The Latent Upside (The “Big Three”)

The consensus forecast of US$20–25 billion excludes the launch of mobile sports betting in the three largest potential markets: California, Texas, and Florida.

• These three states collectively represent nearly 90 million people.
• Their addition would trigger a massive multi-billion-dollar upside to the 2026 forecast, potentially pushing the total market size well above the US$25 billion base case and ensuring a continued high growth rate.

Key Constraints and Risks

While the market is growing, several factors pose challenges to operators and could slow the pace of expansion.

• Regulatory & Tax Burden: High state tax rates and restrictive regulations (especially around advertising and responsible gaming) can squeeze operator profitability and limit promotional spending needed for customer acquisition.
• Competition and Saturation: The market is dominated by a few major players, leading to intense competition and high customer acquisition costs. As the market matures, margins become tighter.
• Economic Factors: As sports betting relies on consumer discretionary spending, any significant economic downturn or recession could negatively impact the total volume of money wagered (handle).
• Responsible Gaming Backlash: Increased public and regulatory scrutiny over high-volume advertising could lead to stricter rules and higher compliance costs for operators in the run-up to 2026.