How to Bet on MLB Baseball: A Beginner’s Guide

Understanding MLB’s Core Bet Types

MLB offers a wide range of wagers, but new bettors should master the three primary markets first.

Moneyline (The Win Bet)

This is the simplest bet: you are wagering on which team will win the game outright.

• Favorite: Indicated by a minus sign (–), such as –150. This means you must risk $\$150$ to win $\$100$ profit.
• Underdog: Indicated by a plus sign (+), such as +130. This means a $\$100$ wager will win $\$130$ profit.

Example: Red Sox –130 vs. Yankees +110. A $\$130$ bet on Boston wins $\$100$; a $\$100$ bet on New York wins $\$110$ if they win.

Run Line (The Spread) ➕/➖

The Run Line is baseball’s equivalent of a point spread, set almost exclusively at $\pm 1.5$ runs.

• Favorite (−1.5): The favorite must win by two or more runs for your bet to cash.
• Underdog (+1.5): The underdog wins the bet if they win the game outright or lose by exactly one run.

Strategy Tip: Because many MLB games are decided by one run, betting the Run Line offers a higher payout on the favorite (compared to their Moneyline odds) but carries a higher risk.

Totals (Over/Under)

You are betting on the combined number of runs scored by both teams.

• Oddsmakers set a line (e.g., 9.5 runs).
• Betting Over wins if the final combined score is 10 or more.
• Betting Under wins if the final combined score is 9 or fewer.

Understanding American Betting Odds

In the U.S., odds convey both the implied probability of an event and your potential payout.

Key Term: The extra money you risk on a standard $-110$ bet (the $\$10$) is the sportsbook’s commission, known as the Juice or Vigorish. This is how the house guarantees a profit.

Advanced Bet Types and Wagers

Once comfortable with the core bets, you can explore other markets:

• Parlays: Combine two or more individual bets (legs) into one ticket. All legs must win for the parlay to payout, offering a high reward for high risk. Same-Game Parlays (SGPs) allow combining wagers from a single game.
• Prop Bets (Proposition Bets): Wagers on specific in-game events or stats, such as Player Props (e.g., Pitcher X Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts) or Team Props (e.g., Total Team Hits).
• Futures: Long-term bets on season outcomes, such as the World Series Champion, League Pennant winners, or MVP/Cy Young awards.
• Live (In-Game) Betting: Placing wagers after the first pitch. Odds update instantly based on the score, momentum, and pitching changes.

Essential Strategy: Where to Find Your Edge

Successful MLB betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Consistency comes from disciplined research and money management.

Focus on Pitching Matchups and Context

Starting pitchers are the most critical factor in setting MLB odds.

• Beyond ERA: Don’t rely solely on basic ERA (Earned Run Average). Dig into advanced stats like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which focuses on outcomes the pitcher controls (strikeouts, walks, home runs).
• Splits and Workload: Check Home/Away splits for both pitchers, their performance against left- vs. right-handed batters, and the Bullpen’s recent workload. A tired bullpen impacts late-game Run Line and Total bets.
• Ballpark & Weather: Always adjust your Totals analysis for the venue. High-altitude parks (like Coors Field) or strong winds blowing out favor the Over, while cold, dense air favors the Under.

Money Management and Discipline

• Set a Bankroll: Determine a fixed amount of disposable income you can afford to lose.
• Bet Small (Flat Betting): Wager only a small, consistent percentage of your bankroll on any single bet, typically 2% to 5%. This flat-betting approach protects you from inevitable losing streaks (variance).
• Avoid Chasing Losses: Never increase your bet size to “get back” money lost in a previous game. Stick to your defined unit size and take a break if you are on a cold streak.
• Shop for the Best Odds: Always open accounts at multiple licensed sportsbooks (e.g., FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM). Compare the odds for your desired wager to find the most favorable number. Getting +118 instead of +110 on an underdog significantly boosts your profit over a long season.

Essential Resources

Use specialized data sources and tools to gain an edge:

Legal Landscape in the U.S.

As of late 2025, 38 U.S. states (plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico) have legalized sports betting in some form since the 2018 Supreme Court ruling.

• Online Betting: Approximately 30 states offer mobile/online betting apps (like DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars), allowing you to wager from your phone or computer.
• Retail Only: A few states only allow betting at physical locations (casinos, racetracks).
• Compliance: You must be physically located within a legal state and be of legal betting age (usually 21) to place a wager. Only use licensed, regulated sportsbooks.

Would you like to review a detailed Bankroll Management example demonstrating the flat betting strategy, or would you prefer more details on how Pitcher Splits (Home/Away, vs. Left/Right) impact the odds?