Kalshi Probes Suspicious $162K MLB Trades
Kalshi is investigating $162,577 in MLB bets placed in a 12-second window, per a report by InGame. The trades, many at improbable 99% odds, have raised red flags.
Unusual Trading Activity Sparks Review
On July 3, Kalshi announced a review of 146 MLB game outcome trades made between 8:00:26 and 8:00:37 ET, per their notice: “Under its Rule 5.10 (‘Trade Cancellations’), KalshiEX LLC hereby gives notice that trades made between 8:00:26 ET and 8:00:37 in KXMLBGAME markets are currently under review under Rule 5.10(c).”
InGame spotted the notice via a Discord post. The exchange’s Rule 5.10(c) allows reviews based on internal analysis or third-party requests, but Kalshi hasn’t clarified the trigger. InGame reached out for comment but got no response.
InGame’s analysis shows the trades, totaling $162,577, spanned 10 MLB games, ruling out single-game factors like injuries. The amount equals 0.7% of Kalshi’s daily volume. Notably, 91 trades were exactly $866 each, spread across every July 3 game. Trading at 8 a.m. ET is common, but this 12-second burst stands out.
On July 2, no MLB trades occurred in the same window, and prior Thursdays showed minimal early activity. $1,500 on June 19 and $69 on June 12.
Eyebrow-Raising Odds
Fifty-seven trades were placed at 99% odds, a win probability unheard of in MLB betting, where even heavy favorites rarely exceed 83% (-500 odds).
Examples include an $8,608 bet on the Braves to beat the Angels (they lost) and a $7,245 bet on the Rockies, who won in extra innings.
Fifteen other bets of $2,000+ were also at 99% odds, with one $2,000 bet at longer odds. The spread across games makes match-fixing unlikely, as it would require massive coordination.
A technical glitch or rogue trading bot could explain the 99% odds, with savvy traders or bots snapping up mispriced bets. Another theory is potential money laundering, given the odd patterns.
Kalshi’s review, the only one in its log since 2021, suggests this isn’t a routine issue. More details are needed to pin down the cause – error or foul play.
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